South Korean and Military Affairs Experts on the True Aim of North Korea’s Missile Launch and Improved Performance
On January 5, North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile from the Jagang Province. Since then, North Korea has carried out a series of missile launches, and on March 24, it launched the “Mars 17,” which is believed to be an ICBM. In recent days, North Korea has refrained from launching missiles, but on September 25, it launched a missile. The report also said that the missile may have flown on an irregular trajectory that makes it difficult to track.
Last year, North Korea also launched a series of new types of missiles, including SLBMs and supersonic missiles. When we asked a South Korean military affairs expert about North Korea’s missile launches, he gave us the following story on condition of anonymity.
<The views of South Korean military experts.
North Korea’s missile launch tests have been changing since 2016; until 2016, the country was fixated on launching long-range missiles, such as ICBMs, and long-range missiles from anywhere in North Korea. It has conducted tests in which missiles could be launched from anywhere in North Korea. Since 2016, however, there has been more testing of SLBMs and other missiles that are not long-range but rather high-performance.
From 2016 to 2021, there were fewer launches of missiles that could fly long distances. This may be due in part to the fact that the U.S. and other countries are putting checks and balances on North Korea’s ability to launch long-range missiles, but it is also seen as a sign that North Korea is now capable of manufacturing long-range missiles to a certain degree.
There is a theory that the latest missile technology was provided by Russia and other countries, but we believe this is not the case. One possibility that has been discussed in our circles as a way for missile technology to flow into North Korea is as follows.
North Korea has another outstanding capability that other countries are threatened by: hacking via the Internet. That is the ability to hack via the Internet. It appears that North Korea is using this hacking technology to obtain blueprints for various missiles and other weapons from other countries. But here is the reason why North Korea repeatedly conducts missile launch tests.
North Korea may have obtained blueprints for a variety of missiles, but these blueprints may or may not specify the alloys to be used for the internal parts and engines of the missiles, and even if they do, these alloys are not easily available. In other words, it is like obtaining only the blueprints for a plastic model, but without the essential parts and adhesives. Also, the engine used for it would have to be prepared on their own.
North Korea may have obtained blueprints for the engines and other components, but with supplies in short supply, it must use its own technology to build each of these components, from the exterior to the core engine and the balance of alloys used for the parts, all in its own unique combinations.
The missiles launched by North Korea in recent years may resemble the missiles of other countries in terms of exterior design, etc., but the content of these missiles was developed independently based on the blueprints of missiles of other countries, and it is no exaggeration to say that these missiles are North Korea’s original missiles.
Therefore, the capabilities of North Korea’s independently developed missiles are not known until they are launched, such as whether they can really fly, whether they can be launched from underwater, and so on. Therefore, North Korea has no choice but to repeat launch tests to confirm the performance of its missiles.
It is assumed that North Korea has obtained blueprints for a variety of weapons, and it is possible that it will conduct launch tests of improved versions of existing missiles or new types of missiles in the future. It is also possible that North Korea will test new types of weapons that are not missiles.
North Korea’s scientific capabilities increased dramatically during the collapse of the Soviet Union. This is because North Korea acquired scientists and others from the USSR Academy of Sciences who lost their jobs when the Soviet Union collapsed, and provided them with a variety of technologies. This influx included nuclear development capabilities and methods of producing biological and chemical weapons, as well as missile-related technologies.
North Korea’s scientific capabilities have evolved based on the technology it acquired from the Soviet Union, and have been further advanced by hacking and acquiring new modern technologies, which, if left unchecked, will pose a further threat to other countries. (Experts’ view)
We believe that North Korea’s launch of long-range missiles this year was influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia and North Korea have long had a close relationship. North Korea’s missile launches are believed to be aimed at a “whim” when international condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is rising and international relations are destabilizing, as well as to “harass” the U.S., which is increasingly blaming Russia, by launching missiles with a range that reaches the U.S.
North Korea’s missile launches are also a serious problem for Japan. The missile tests have so far landed mainly in the Sea of Japan, sometimes in the country’s exclusive economic zone, posing a threat to vessels navigating the waters around Japan. The possibility cannot be denied that missile tests will be repeated in the future and that the point of impact will be within Japan’s territory. The Japanese people have a certain “peace-loving” mentality, and the public has become less fearful as a result of North Korea’s successive missile launches, thinking of them only in terms of “Here we go again. The Japanese government has been making strong claims that it has made a stern protest to North Korea, but given the fact that there has been no progress in negotiations regarding the abduction issue, the current Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not have the necessary pipeline for proper negotiations with North Korea. I have heard from an expert that the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ “stern protests against North Korea” are merely faxed to the North Korean Embassy in China in Beijing. If this is true, then that is about the extent of Japan’s diplomatic power.
On the other hand, the improvement of North Korea’s weapons capability has also involved zainichi Koreans. It is said that zainichi Koreans who entered Japanese universities obtained academic papers and other literature and sent them to North Korea.
The Korean Scientists Association in Japan (Kakyo), a federation of scientists living in Japan, also cooperated in procuring supplies and other items. One military affairs expert expressed the opinion that “at the time of past missile launches, the cargo ship Mangyongbong 92, which was donated to North Korea by the Federation of Korean Industries, sailed through the Sea of Japan at the same time and was used to observe missile flight paths and other information.
In addition, North Korea has been using the Chosin Credit Union (Chogin), which was under the jurisdiction of the Federation of Korean Industries, as “the hammer of the Federation of Korean Industries” to get money in and out as it wished, and has been using Chogin to generate money like alchemy to finance North Korea. However, with the failure of the Bank of Korea, it is no longer able to fulfill this function. The debt identified as a loan from the Bank of Korea to the Federation of Korean Industries is on the scale of 63 billion yen, most of which would have gone to North Korea.
In addition, the merchants and individuals living in Japan who borrowed from the Chosan Bank also sent money to North Korea under the guise of supporting their relatives.
We must not forget that North Korea has survived to the present day because of this system of support for North Korea within Japan, and that it has played a role in strengthening North Korea’s weapons capabilities.