North Korea has conducted a series of missile launch tests since January of this year, launching a missile that allegedly flew on an “irregular trajectory that makes tracking difficult” on September 25 and again on September 28. The possibility of launching an SLBM has also been raised. We asked a Japanese expert on security issues about this situation, and he offered the following comments.
＜The Security Expert’s Opinion＞
I believe that North Korea’s launch of various missiles this year is influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia and North Korea have long had a close relationship, and there is even a story that “Kim Il Sung’s office and the Russian embassy in North Korea are connected by an underground passageway, and they have held frequent meetings.
North Korea’s missile launches are believed to be aimed at a “fortuitous moment” when international condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is rising and international relations are destabilizing, and it is also believed that North Korea is launching missiles that can reach the United States to “harass” the United States, which has been increasingly condemning Russia.
North Korea’s missile launches are also a serious problem for Japan. The missile tests have so far landed mainly in the Sea of Japan, sometimes in the country’s exclusive economic zone, posing a threat to vessels navigating the waters around Japan.
The possibility cannot be denied that missile tests will be repeated in the future and the point of impact will be within Japan’s territory.
The Japanese people have a “peace-loving” mentality, and the successive missile launches by North Korea have made the general public think, “Oh, no…not again.
The public has become less fearful of the possibility of another North Korean missile launch, and the Japanese people have become more “peaceful” and less concerned.
Whenever such a problem occurs, the Japanese government makes a strong defense that it has made a stern protest to North Korea. However, the fact that there has been no progress in negotiations on the abduction issue suggests that Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not have the necessary channels to negotiate with North Korea in a proper manner.
Experts with deep connections to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs say that the ministry had been in regular contact with North Korea until around 2019. However, with the spread of the new coronavirus, the relationship has been severed because North Korean representatives no longer travel to China. Currently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs seems to have lost its window of contact with North Korea,” he said.
Earlier, I mentioned that the Japanese government makes a stern protest every time a missile is launched, etc., but I have heard from an expert about the “stern protests to North Korea” made by the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs that they only fax protest letters to the North Korean embassy in China in Beijing.
If this is true, then that is about the extent of Japan’s diplomatic power. A single faxed protest is meaningless. However, it is done out of courtesy, because it appeals to the Japanese public that Japan has protested.
Some experts on North Korean affairs have also commented that “North Korea will conduct a nuclear test after launching a new type of weapon, such as an SLBM. This is a measure to gain the upper hand in the U.S.-North Korea negotiations. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service has expressed the view that “North Korea may conduct a nuclear test between October 16 and November 7, when the U.S. midterm elections are held.
On the other hand, North Korea’s growing weapons capabilities have also involved Koreans living in Japan. It is said that Koreans living in Japan who entered Japanese universities obtained academic papers and other literature and sent them to North Korea.
The Korean Scientists Association in Japan (Kakyo), a federation of Korean scientists living in Japan, also cooperated in procuring supplies and other items. One military affairs expert expressed the opinion that “at the time of past missile launches, the cargo ship・ Mangyongbong 92, which was donated to North Korea by the Federation of Korean Industries, sailed through the Sea of Japan at the same time and was used to observe missile flight paths and other information.
In addition, North Korea has been using the Chosin Credit Union (Chogin), which was under the jurisdiction of the Federation of Korean Industries, as “the hammer of the Federation of Korean Industries” to get money in and out as it wished, and has been using Chogin to generate money like alchemy to finance North Korea. However, with the failure of the Bank of Korea, it is no longer able to fulfill this function. The debt identified as a loan from the Bank of Korea to the Federation of Korean Industries is on the scale of 63 billion yen, most of which would have gone to North Korea.
In addition, Korean businessmen living in Japan and members of the Federation of Korean Industries who borrowed from the Bank of Korea also sent money to North Korea in the name of supporting their relatives.
We must not forget that North Korea has survived to the present day because of this system of support within Japan, and that it has played a role in strengthening North Korea’s weapons capabilities.